By PETER BOHUSH

Bismark predicted it nearly a hundred years ago - "If there is ever another war in Europe, it will come out of some damned silly thing in the Balkans,: the German chancellor said. A mere 15 years had passed when a single shot in Sarajevo launched World War I, the "War to end all wars."

Now, perhaps it’s the "War that has no end." The three-sided ethnic conflict puts Serbs, Croats, Muslims and their rag-tag militias against one another on multiple fronts, with multinational United Nations peace keepers trying to referee from the sidelines. The effect is chaos.

"These guys just fire willy nilly into the air. They also like to play with hand grenades," said Larry Ledlow of Serbian militiamen. Ledlow is a U.S. citizen who volunteered for a 100-day stint with the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in Zagreb, Croatia, a primarily Catholic state in what used to be Yugoslavia.

A systems engineer for Lockheed in New Hampshire, Ledlow, 36, now works as a radio technician for the UNHCR, installing and maintaining communication links for the aid organization. He is one of only a dozen or so U.S. citizens in the entire UNHCR operation, and the only American radio technician.

Front row seat

Now in his sixth week in Croatia, Ledlow has witnesses first-hand the insanities associated with war, refugees, corruption, hatred and "ethnic cleansing."

In a roundtable discussion Saturday on GEnie Online Service, Ledlow gave a brief history of the regional conflict, talked about several harrowing situations while crossing hostile, checkpoints and stated his opinions on the prospects for peace in the area.

While much media attention has focused on the situation in Bosnia, neighboring Croatia has its share of ethnic conflict, too.

"Croatia had a war with Serbia in 1991, after Croatia declared independence from Yugoslavia," Ledlow said. "At the same time, Serbian enclaves within Croatia in the south and east of the country started an uprising to destabilize the government.

A U.N. brokered peace plan brought in United Nations Protection Forces (UNPROFOR) to stand guard between Croatia and the Serbian region, Krajina (krah YEE na).

"Now the map of Croatia looks like a backward ‘7’ with huge bites taken out of it," he said.

Black Market

The ethnic regions are sustained in large part by black market goods and weapons, Ledlow noted. Properties seized from the ethnic minorities are either sold to the other warring factions or are sold to buy military equipment.

He hasn’t seen any U.S. profiteers, but noted a number of European and Australian citizens running black market operations in areas where U.N. humanitarian aid cannot reach. Many powerful locals also run illicit operations.

"There is, and has been for a long time, a strong Mafia here. First and foremost, they’re business people and they have worldwide connections for everything. They are warlords of sorts, able to control what the people can and cannot get in many areas where the U.N. can’t take hold."

In many areas, the fighting groups can hardly be considered true military units under formal chains of command. It makes it difficult, if not impossible, for cease fires to be maintained.

"In truth, there is very little discipline and there is very little connection in the field soldiers’ heads between Belgrade (the Serbian capital) and their crappy, cold outposts in the sticks," Ledlow said. "Their allegiance is to the people who take care of them – which might be the local commander, or maybe the local Mafia guy, or maybe their best friend.

"It’s scary, because half the time you don’t know what to expect when you come across these guys. They’re drunk or pissed off many times. I had one goofing around the other day, pointing an AK-47 at me through the bushes before he turned around and pointed it at his fellow trooper."

Refugees

More than 3 million people are now refugees as a result of the conflicts. The UNHCR tries to provide food, supplies and shelters to many.

"These are people who have been pushed out of their homes. They are non-combatants and they have no desire to fight," he said. As frequently reported by the media, these refugees are often the targets of warring factions. "They are mostly women and children and elderly."

While there are U.S. troops in nearby Macedonia, only a few U.S. medical and support personnel are stationed in Croatia, he said.

The U.N. forces are made up of troops from around the globe. Many Russian soldiers are also there, generally aligned with the Serbians.

U.N. military action in Bosnia has been considered to bring an end to the years of bloodshed. But Ledlow noted that the Bosnian terrain is rugged and mountainous – very difficult to operate in. He compared it to trying to wage a ground war in the Rocky Mountains.

Croatia, on the other hand, is blessed with a fertile terrain and more temperate climate than Bosnia.

"The economical future of Croatia is very good. It has always had the resources to be quite viable as a trading partner" with the U.S. or other countries, he said. "Also, Croatia is, if you will, a bit more cultured and westernized than some other parts of ex-Yugoslavia. It’s regional advantages over the other parts of former Yugoslavia are part of the reason for the trouble."

Just the beginning

The trouble is probably closer to its beginning than to its end. Ledlow said he believes Yugoslavia will be an ethnically divided region for at least several generations more. And though the U.N. troops are there on behalf of peace, the local factions have not extended a warm welcome to them.

"They want to fight their own battles. These are proud people," he said. "My personal opinion is that they need to fight it out until they wear each other down. Then maybe the U.N. can facilitate peace."

They seem to be doing well at wearing each other down. Ledlow described an experience in Banja Luka, in Serb-held northern Bosnia.

"At night we could hear shots in the Muslim neighborhoods as the Serbs took Muslims’ homes," he recounted. "The twist here is that the Serbs doing the taking were mostly displaced from their homes by Muslims in central Bosnia. And the circle goes on and on."

He also noted the drive to Banja Luka, where a four-hour wait at a seemingly hostile checkpoint turned into a boisterous party after the local soldiers pulled out their home-made whisky and passed it around to the UNHCR group.

Time for reflection

In between the many anxious and dangerous moments, Ledlow has taken time for reflection.

"One important thing that has entered my mind is the similarity between what is happening here and what is happening in the United States. The violence. The ethnic divisions. Exploiters versus the victims. It’s scary," he said near the end of this nearly three-hour interview. "And I think something like it could happen in the U.S. in the next 20 years. "These groups are getting more organized."

The hour in Zagreb was approaching 3 a.m. when Ledlow talked of things he took for granted in America, like proper toilets and being able to walk into the woods without tripping on a land mine.

When queried what he’ll do when he returns to the U.S. in April, Ledlow paused a few moments before sending his reply.